The US and Iran

[drkhwy1]

What is your opinion of the idea that the USA might have to swallow its pride and open talks with Tehran about the out of control situation in Iraq? I don't know how up to speed everyone is about Iraq but people are now being burned alive in public places. Seems things have turned even more savage with no end in sight. No one in the current or future US gov't has a clue about what to do(at least the old ways have been ended). There is one thing that is certain, nobody wants us there at all and each day the growing threat to our troops abroad become apparent. Helicopters taking fire in what was supposed to be the secure Green Zone, troops kidnapped...to me it's a huge sign that chaos has all but taken over. We can't just pull out, the only way is diplomacy now and that means, as much as we shiver at the thought, we have to open up talks with Iran. It is Iran who we have been playing chess with recently in Iraq, both sides using its pawns to stir up the region. it would seem that Iran has the USA in check at the moment though. I am sure Iran is laughing about it too. It is now being fully realized how bad things have become or have been, the media wasn't allowed or chose not to print the full stories because of the risk of killing military morale. The Iraq situation is no longer a problem that can be fixed with high tech weaponry, no no. The world is way too polarized today for anymore military solutions(Bush has a knack for polarizing people). The only way to bring the Iraq situation completely under its own control is to have the big "round table talks" like the ones that helped close World War II. It's true, this is no longer a USA problem(we are in over our heads), it is now a world problem.

Do you think the Bush administration has what it takes to swallow its pride and open channels of talks with Tehran or not?

[Skiusa2005]

Do you think the Bush administration has what it takes to swallow its pride and open channels of talks with Tehran or not?
[/b]

I think the ground work is be laid as we speak for talks with Iran. However, bearing in mind the only way Iran will help the US is if we allow them to continue with their uraniam enrichment for nuclear power. I'm no expert on the workings of a nuclear facility, nor different levels of enrichment...but if Iran truely wants uraniam for electrical purposes, perhaps there is a diplomatic solution that would allow them to do so, under the guidance or supervision of others (ideally a non-US lead group).

That said, I'm feeling like laying the ground work for a "round table talk" is a cover up for pulling out...look at the signs, it's all there.

[drkhwy1]

Well yeh, America is shitting it's pants right now. No one can come up with a solution. Obama seems to have the one with the most reason so far but it's only an idea at this stage of the game. Iran, we are discovering, knows how to play chess.

We have some choices:

A) Pressure Iraq gov't and it fails=we look like a bunch of a-holes in the process

Pressure Iraq gov't and it suceeds= we still will look like assholes for a bunch of years but atleast we can then leave.

C) Stay the course and have more of the same and possibly worse.

D) Talk to Iran, atleast hear them out...if they are crazy forget it but if they make sense then take them into consideration.

E) Send more troops which will make the region even more mad.

I am at a loss here, none seem like a quality fix at all. Iran holds the most risk but, like any gamble, it can also pay off the highest reward. Bush is being heralded as one of the worst in the history of the country, I don't think he has much left to lose, dignity-wise, by talking with Tehran. Most countries hate him and his policies, a lot of americans do as well. It will be interesting to see what he decides after seeing the Iraq report. If he is still hard-headed after reading that then he is just crazy and will likely make things worse. We shall see.

[Skiusa2005]

The best solution, is a diplomatic solution. Basically, swallowing pride and going to the nations we pissed off looking for diplomatic help. News just came across the wire a few minutes ago based on a meeting with Irans president and the president of Iraq (or prime minister...whatever it is). Irans Prez. said that Iran will back Iraq 100% in whichever way it needs help. This is either good, or bad news for us. I believe I read that Iran was hoping for direct talks with the white house on this (and other) subjects in the near future. We'll see if it happens. The idea of sending more troops over there is ludicrous, because there simply aren't enough reserve here, to go there. If that's the direction the US Gov. wants to go, a draft is iminent..but this doesn't help us in the short term because of logistical implementation, training, and eventual deployment.

Interestingly enough, similar events are unfolding in Lebanon, with the Hezbollah representation in the government there....though, the US isn't directly involved in that one.

[millyowner]

From what I understand, Iran is a signatory on the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty, which allows for the enrichment of nuclear fuel or at least the purchase of it on the international market for power generation purposes only. The only problem is that parts of the NNPT favor the "boys club" or those countries that developed nukes before the mid 1960s and Iran has their own way of protesting the perceived unfairness. In fact, Pakistan, India and Israel have refused to sign the NNPT for the same reasons and all have their own nuclear arsenal.

What Iran is doing can only be described as "skirting the boundaries" as far as the NNPT is concerned. For example, under the NNPT, the UN is to perform regular inspections of their facilities and track every last isotope of fuel used to ensure it doesn't go to nuclear weapons. Do the "original" nuclear powers like the US submit to regular UN scrutiny as well? Of course not since, for us, it is a "national security matter" so naturally, we are excluded from the requirement (boys club).

Iran also recently declined the purchase of Uranium from Russia choosing instead to refine their own fuel (if you don't want the UN tracking fuel diverted for weapons development, enrich Uranium seceretly instead...at least that's what everyone is thinking). They haven't done anything *yet* but everyone is convinced that they are seriously considering or have already developed nuclear warheads without UN knowledge.

What to do now is the question. Figuring the US military is a bit busy at the moment, now would be the time to push plans for nuclear armament. I think the best we can hope for is deciding how best to live with Iran as a nuclear power.

[Skiusa2005]

From what I understand, Iran is a signatory on the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty, which allows for the enrichment of nuclear fuel or at least the purchase of it on the international market for power generation purposes only. The only problem is that parts of the NNPT favor the "boys club" or those countries that developed nukes before the mid 1960s and Iran has their own way of protesting the perceived unfairness. In fact, Pakistan, India and Israel have refused to sign the NNPT for the same reasons and all have their own nuclear arsenal.

What Iran is doing can only be described as "skirting the boundaries" as far as the NNPT is concerned. For example, under the NNPT, the UN is to perform regular inspections of their facilities and track every last isotope of fuel used to ensure it doesn't go to nuclear weapons. Do the "original" nuclear powers like the US submit to regular UN scrutiny as well? Of course not since, for us, it is a "national security matter" so naturally, we are excluded from the requirement (boys club).

Iran also recently declined the purchase of Uranium from Russia choosing instead to refine their own fuel (if you don't want the UN tracking fuel diverted for weapons development, enrich Uranium seceretly instead...at least that's what everyone is thinking). They haven't done anything *yet* but everyone is convinced that they are seriously considering or have already developed nuclear warheads without UN knowledge.

What to do now is the question. Figuring the US military is a bit busy at the moment, now would be the time to push plans for nuclear armament. I think the best we can hope for is deciding how best to live with Iran as a nuclear power.
[/b]

Good info-that said, With exception of a couple groups and North Korea, a country like Iran having nuclear weapons isn't really a direct threat to us. My thinking is that most leaders understand that the consequences of using nuclear weapons against a country that has the very same weapons is nothing short of counter productive.

[Tha Arsonist]

Earth and morality allows no more than a few nukes to be dropped for wartime purposes. NNPT is just a way for the superpowers to establish themselves as the dominant nuclear bully of the world. It's basicly saying, "we've got the first and only stinkbombs for this classroom. You wanna throw some of your own? You'll get in trouble with us".

If Iran signed the NNPT, they have nothing to complain about. They should've been smarter like Israel and Pakistan and not sign it a all if they wanted their own nukes.

And Iran's prez is an idiot. Probably more than Bush.

[drkhwy1]

Iran's prez is a loose cannon. Sometimes he makes sense and sounds professional but he also likes to go off the deep-end. It's very hard to make heads or tails of his agenda.

[millyowner]

In a way, the NNPT doesn't mean anything. Countries either don't sign it (India), or sign it in exchange for "stuff" from us and then do whatever they want behind our backs (Iran).

Either way, nuclear power and weaponry is something any country is capable of with enough resources and technology. Because we were the first with nuclear technology, we seem to treat it like a patent as if we own nuclear technology. You can't patent a process that's used in every star throughout the universe, yet with the NNPT we seem to be licensing out the technology like an OEM copy of Windows XP Home Edition. I can imagine why so many countries don't like us. We're like Microsoft to them.

[Duncan]

Iran's prez is a loose cannon. Sometimes he makes sense and sounds professional but he also likes to go off the deep-end. It's very hard to make heads or tails of his agenda.[/b]

Best way I've heard the Iranian situation described is that Ahmadinejad speaks more for the (religious-leader) mullahs than he does for the people. Obviously, he said whatever was needed to get elected, then was quickly told "the way of things" by the bearded guys in the mosques.

So diplomacy may or may not make a difference. It's hard to say.